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Updating the priors: the dynamics of agent internal representations

Every time the agent is facing a new choice, he polls his neighbors and gets some information. This succession of information can be used in different ways.

One way is to forget the information obtained at previous time steps and recompute at the next time step the utility function from the same initial priors. In this case the priors are not updated.

Another possibility is to memorize all the information acquired at each time step by using as priors for , and the posteriors derived from equation 2 at the previous time step. We call this choice maximum updating. But increases in time as the total number of polled opinions. The importance of the risk aversion parameter is then rapidly decreasing. Furthermore, agents using maximum updating would give the same importance to old and new information and would tend to be overconfident because the variance of the utility probability distribution is constantly decreased. An image of such an agent would be an obstinate old man that does not care any more about the present situation and refers only to the old times. Maximum updating is thus fairly insensitive to the variable changes in time and does not fit well with dynamical processes.

An intermediate possibility is to decrease the relative importance of older information. This is simply achieved by limiting the to a maximum value of . To see why choosing an is equivalent to a short term memory, let us suppose that several iterations have been made with , in a neighborhood where the fraction of purchasers have not changed. By iterating the utility expression (2) towards the past one obtains:

where l is the time difference between the past step and the present. Utilities from the past are then discounted by a factor at each time step, and since , this corresponds to a decay time for memory of . In other words limiting to is somehow equivalent to limit the averaging process to the most recent information.

The prior updating process is only performed on the internal representation of the agents. It does not apply to the information transmitted between the agents, when the main source of uncertainty is the polling process itself. In equation 1, always represent the initial average utility of brand i. It is, of course, a constant of the simulation.



next up previous
Next: SIMULATION RESULTS Up: THE MODEL Previous: Pollution dynamics



weisbuch
Tue Feb 4 16:55:42 GMT+0100 1997