next up previous
Next: Conclusions Up: A model with Previous: Algebraic analysis

Simulation results

Once is greater than 2, the equilibrium becomes unstable. The analytical global stability analysis has not been done, but simulation results show that the system sometimes has a Hopf bifurcation towards a limit cycle, and sometimes simply diverges.

  
Figure 12: The unstable limit cycle (separatrix) of the minimum consumption model of section 5 shown on the phase portrait. The equilibrium point is surrounded by an unstable limit cycle. Inside the separatrix solutions approach the equilibrium, while outside oscillations increase in amplitude until the boundary K=0 is reached. This plot shows two trajectories for the case , =0.8; . is plotted against . Arrows show the direction of the trajectory as time increases. Initial coordinates are = (5.5, 1) and (8.5, 1).

Oscillations occur in the vicinity of this equilibrium point when . If we are in the situation where the minimum consumption and the sharpness coefficient are small then is approximately 1 and the condition for oscillations simplifies (approximately) to , or Thus this condition does not reduce to that of the baseline model of section 2, and we should not expect it to since the equations near the equilibrium point are different.

According to whether the initial conditions are within the basin of attraction of the equilibrium or not, the addition of a minimum consumption has different effects on resource depletion (Figure 11). Inside the basin of attraction it reduces the amount of capital that can be accumulated. The resource cannot be depleted down to the levels reached without the minimum consumption assumption. This decreases the amplitude of the swings, as seen in Figures 11a and 14. But, outside the attraction basin, the lack of capital for re-investment during those hard times when consumption is maintained at its minimum results in a fast capital decrease that eventually finishes with a system crash (see figure 11b). A phase portrait of the dynamics is presented for similar conditions in figure 12.

  
Figure 13: A stable limit cycle of the minimum consumption model of section 5. A limit cycle is observed above the equilibrium instability transition obtained at large minimum consumption. This limit cycle is shown for the case , = , , , for 3 different sets of initial conditions. It is difficult to see, but the inside trajectory () is gradually moving outward, the outside trajectory () moves inward, and the center trajectory , is essentially periodic. In each case, N starts at the equilibrium value of . The region of attraction of the limit cycle is limited: not shown is an unstable limit cycle separating the region of attraction of the inner limit cycle from an unstable region where solutions always reach the K = 0 boundary, just as in the previous figure.

Numerical simulations allow us to investigate the global stability. At large values of and , e.g. .8 and .2, there exists a separatrix which prevents interior trajectories from going to infinity. When approaches , the inside trajectories evolve towards a limit cycle (figure 13). For smaller values of and , e.g. .5 and .001, the separatrix shrinks when increases towards , and local and global stability are lost at the transition.

In any case, when the minimum consumption gets close to the capital depreciation rate at equilibrium, then the likelihood of starting from initial conditions which lead to depletion of the capital is fairly high.



next up previous
Next: Conclusions Up: A model with Previous: Algebraic analysis



weisbuch
Fri Feb 7 13:18:37 GMT+0100 1997