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algebraic approach

This system has a nontrivial equilibrium state, given by and , where

 

In the rest of this paper the algebra and simulations will be performed with non-dimensionalized systems. Nondimensionalizing the system, by changing variables, reduces the number of parameters in the system and allows us to examine all at once a set of parameters which lead to the same mathematical behavior. For example, as we will see, all parameter choices with the same values of yield the same dynamical behavior, no matter what r, and are. In order to interpret results, we will sometimes come back to the original variables and parameters.

We use the equilibrium values of N and K, and the rate of resource replenishment r, to nondimensionalize the system by letting

 

This gives the nondimensionalized system:

 

 

with only one parameter remaining:

 

gives a measure of the ratio between the rate of decay of capital and the replenishment rate of the resources.

This system has two equilibria at = (0, 0) and (1, 1). The equilibrium around the origin is unstable.

Linearizing around the point (1,1) gives:

 

 

 

which has eigenvalues . This equilibrium is always stable. If this equilibrium is reached without oscillations. If oscillations decay toward the equilibrium. The magnitude of the oscillations of course depends on the initial conditions, being larger the further the initial system is from equilibrium (figures 6 and 14). These oscillations are the dramatic oscillations that are observed by numerical simulations in figure 2 for instance. In the limit of small , the oscillation frequency is:

 

where the r factor comes from changing back the time scale from to t.

Resource depletion as a function of the distance of the initial conditions from equilibrium can also be estimated analytically, at least when solutions are so close to equilibrium that the linear approximation is valid. Figure 3 shows that we have to relate , the relative resource depletion at time t, where t is the time for the system to rotate around equilibrium, to , the initial relative deviation of capital from equilibrium (relative here refers for instance to the ratio of initial capital to capital at equilibrium).

 

where and are the real and imaginary part of . The ratio of and is obtained from equation 11, where the time derivative of x is replaced by .

 

We can then define the linear fragility f of any bio-economic system with overshoot and depletion by:

 

which gives:

 

for system 3-4. High fragility refers to a strong resource depletion following any initial departure for equilibrium. Linear fragility can a priori take any value between 0 and infinity. The variations of f with are represented on figure 4.

  
Figure 4: Linear fragility, defined in the text as the ratio between maximum relative resource depletion to initial relative capital distance to equilibrium ( see figure 3) is represented as a function of defined by equation 9. Computation is done according to equation 17. The fragility of the system increases when the renewal rate of the resource is much faster than capital depreciation rate.



next up previous
Next: More general production Up: The simplest model: Previous: Simulation results



weisbuch
Fri Feb 7 13:18:37 GMT+0100 1997